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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Seasonal Factors at Play in Jobs Report


Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. Following this morning’s jobs report we have updated the jobs growth charts in our recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years, that illustrate the role of skewed seasonal factors in the economic data.

For a detailed discussion of this issue please see pages five and six of our presentation.

Related News & Events

Recession Update: Part 1 of 2

Bloomberg March 7, 2013

Lakshman Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss ECRI's recent presentations in Oslo and Chicago: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More

 

Recession Update: Part 2 of 2

Bloomberg March 7, 2013

ECRI's Achuthan joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss his recent presentation: Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. More