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Recessionary Outlook

Page A1, The Outlook

"As bad as the economy may seem to some, it looks relatively healthy to the group (of economists). ...(however) Geoffrey Moore , who at 75 years of age has had a hand in declaring many modern recessions, gives his opinion even without being asked.

Mr. Moore, director of Columbia University's Center for International Business Cycle Research*, recently noted the center's employment index has begun signaling recession.

Newly pessimistic, Mr. Moore puts the odds of a recession at two-to-one in the first half."

*the CIBCR closed in 1996 when Dr. Moore established ECRI with Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji.