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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Recession Risk Rising


"As if Friday's report that showed job creation at a dead stall wasn't bad enough, economists say the worst could be yet to come.

That's because high unemployment could be a warning sign -- and the cause -- of the country falling into a double dip recession.

Most economists weren't ready to call a new recession yet. But many were raising the odds of one.

They're worried because weakness in the labor market can lead businesses and households to pullback on spending. And that is the worst thing possible for an economy where overall growth has slowed to nearly zero.

"When employment drops, incomes fall. When income falls, sales fall. When sales fall, production falls. When production falls, employment falls," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute.

It's a tough cycle to break.

"You can scream and shout, you can be the President, you can be the Congress, you can be the central bank, you're not going to stop that once it gets going," said Achuthan.

Even so, the economy is still technically creating jobs -- albeit very slowly -- and Achuthan thinks the economy would need to actually lose jobs before tipping back into recession..."

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