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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Recession Nips at Heels of Economy


"...'We've had a new slowdown that began roughly in the second quarter of 2011,' says Lakshman Achuthan, who heads the Economic Cycle Research Institute. 'This time that downturn in growth has continued all the way to the onset of a new recession.'"

"...'Then the economy began to slow again and this is something we saw coming,' Achuthan says. 'It was happening in the context of a global industrial slowdown, where industrial activity worldwide was decelerating.'

In other words he says the American economy fell victim to cyclical forces. Europe was slowing down. Emerging nations like China took steps to fight inflation by cooling their economies. So the surge in demand that occurred after the 2008 financial crisis petered out by last December — well before the Arab Spring or the Japanese earthquake."

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