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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Job Growth is Slowing


ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses how job growth is not accelerating as almost every commentator is suggesting. Even with the stronger-than-expected jobs report, year-over-year payroll jobs growth has fallen to an 18-month low, and year-over-year household jobs growth has fallen to a 16-month low.

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Interview Summary

ECRI March 8, 2013

In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. More

 

Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 8, 2013

Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More