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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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No sign yet of recession end


A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell while its annualized growth rate inched up in the latest week, but both still signal that the way out of the recession is not in sight, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell in the week ending Jan 9 to 108.6 from 109.3 in the previous week, initially reported as 109.4.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to negative 25.5 percent from negative 26.9 percent, revised from minus 26.8 percent. It marked its highest reading since the week to October 24, 2008, when it was minus 22.8 percent.

"Despite some recent stabilization the WLI remains in a clear cyclical downswing, indicating that an economic recovery is not on the horizon," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI in an instant message interview...
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