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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Leading U.S. Gauge Moving Up


The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Weekly Leading Index ticked up 0.1 point 15 142.7 in the week ended May 11.

The 4-week annualized growth rate reached a new 3-year high of 6.1%, up from last week's 5.2%.

"There's reasonably broad-based strength in the forward-looking indicators of the economy," including those for the service and industrial sectors, said Anirvan Banerji, director of research at ECRI. "The prospect of a recession is minuscule at this point."