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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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RBI’s MPC Minutes and ECRI


An excerpt from December's meeting minutes of the RBI's MPC:

“39. …Meanwhile, growth in the Indian Leading Index, a predictor of the direction of Indian economic growth maintained by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), New York, has risen lately, indicating some improvement in economic growth prospects.

40. Downside risks to growth include lower sowing in the rabi season, financial

volatility, global slowdown and trade war, while the drop in crude oil prices and rise in credit offtake augur well for growth prospects. As of now, net exports are a drag with growth in imports sharper relative to exports growth. However, growth in ECRI’s Indian Leading Export Index, a predictor of the direction of exports growth, has ticked up lately, indicating a slightly brighter Indian export growth outlook, despite languishing growth in ECRI’s 20-country composite Long Leading Index, which still points to a continued global growth slowdown.”

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