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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jobs Report and Recovery


...Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at Economic Cycle Research Institute, says economists are extrapolating their views on the recent past.

"U.S. economic growth is poised for a stronger snap-back than most expect," he said.

Fueling spending will be two years of pent-up demand, low prices and consumers that are less fearful of losing their jobs, he says.

ECRI's leading U.S. index has risen sharply the past several months. The gauge's annualized growth rate has soared to 20.8%, a 38-year high.

Last spring ECRI predicted a recovery would begin before summer ended. It expects job growth to return by year-end. A double-dip recession is "out of the question," Achuthan had said....
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