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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Is there really no recession?


Achuthan and Blodget discuss ECRI's call for recession to begin by mid 2012, and how it typically takes about six months after a recession begins before you see a negative GDP print in the rear-view mirror.

Related News & Events

Revoking Recession: 48th Time's the Charm?

ECRI May 9, 2012

Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More

 

Recession Update

Bloomberg May 9, 2012

For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions. More