A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Inflation Pressures Receding

Inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy eased again, suggested by a plunge in the growth of commodity prices, slower growth of real-estate loans and a higher unemployment rate, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

ECRI's future inflation gauge, an index designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in inflation, fell to 103.2 in July from a downwardly revised 103.8 in June, the group said Friday.

The smoothed annualized growth rate of the index rose to -15.5% in July from -16.1% in June.

"The underlying inflationary pressures not only continue to fall, but are doing so at the fastest rate since the last recession. Therefore, it is quite clear that inflation will keep declining for the foreseeable future," the report said.

Weekly updates of the index are released only to subscribers.