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How to forecast recessions


Success in a market economy depends on how well can you see the future. And this is not an easy task, as every recession has repeatedly shown.

New York-based Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came out of the recession in 2000 with a greatly enhanced reputation. It was perhaps, the only economic research outfit, which predicted the slowdown months in advance.

However, in the supercharged atmosphere of those times, its call was not heeded. Today, though, ECRI and its top guns command much greater respect, and with them the area of business cycle research as well.

Anirvan Banerji is the Indian-born director of research at ECRI, who is now amongst the foremost global business cycle gurus. An alumnus of IIM Ahmedabad.

Banerji, along with ECRI's MD Lakshman Achuthan, earlier this year published a now globally acclaimed book 'Beating the Business Cycle', which every Indian CEO would do well to pick up.