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Flat Spain a Risk

"...The Economic Cycle Research Institute's long leading indicator for Spain, which leads business cycle turns by about a year, peaked in March 2007. Eleven months later, the economy fell into recession, where ECRI says it remains despite the Q1 GDP gain and Bank of Spain forecast for 0.8% growth this year.

"Spain is in its fourth year of recession," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan. "That realization is not there, but it's going to become apparent. In that context, a global slowdown is hardly helpful."

ECRI's long leading indicator for global industrial output sig nals a summer growth slowdown. Data from the U.S., Europe and China also point to that, including a 4-month low in ECRI's weekly leading U.S. index.

Achuthan added that while the Spanish index has edged up lately, it 'does not yet qualify as a real cyclical upswing...'"