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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Eurozone Inflation Pressures at 25-Month Low in April


Price pressures in the euro zone fell to a 25-month low in April, easing in all four core countries, according to an indicator designed to predict cyclical inflation trends.

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG), fell to 96.0 in April from 98.2 in March, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) said on Friday.

"Euro zone inflation pressures remain in a clear cyclical downswing," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief operating officer.

Headline inflation in the euro zone eased to 2.4 percent last month according to flash data on Thursday, its lowest level since February 2011, still holding firmly above the European Central Bank's 2 percent target ceiling.

Growing signs the euro zone economy is deteriorating and inflation easing prompted more than a third of economists polled by Reuters this week to say the ECB will cut interest rates before the end of the year to boost growth.

But the majority said it will leave interest rates on hold when it meets next Thursday and at least until 2014.

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Oslo

ECRI June 4, 2012

ECRI principals will be in Oslo to meet with professional members on June 4, 2012.