Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge holds at 40-month low


Eurozone inflation should ease in coming months after price pressures stayed at multi-year lows in July, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed on Friday.

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG), published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, held steady in July at June's 40-month low of 91.4.

"Eurozone inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical downswing in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief operations officer.

Preliminary official data last week showed inflation eased further last month, leaving the European Central Bank room to ease policy if needed.

Related Insights

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

 

Related News & Events

Becoming Japan (Part 1)

ECRI July 30, 2013

Japan’s lost decades showed faster GDP growth than in the U.S. and other major economies in the last five years. More