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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Euro Inflation Pressures Ease


Inflationary pressures in the euro zone eased to a 21-month low in January, according to an indicator designed to predict inflation trends.

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG) slipped a touch to 96.5 in January from 96.6 in December, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) said on Friday.

"Falling further from its early 2011 high, the EZFIG declined to a 21-month low in its latest reading," Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief operating officer said.

"Thus, euro zone inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical downtrend in the months ahead."

But euro zone inflation rose to 2.7 percent in February from 2.6 percent in January, flash data last week showed, as world crude oil prices continue to climb.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said at a monthly press conference on Thursday that despite signs of a stabilising economy inflation would likely stay above 2 percent in 2012 and upside risks to inflation will persist.

The ECB also lowered its growth outlook for this year and next, saying that the expected gradual economic recovery might take longer than previously expected.

VIEW THIS ARTICLE ON REUTERS

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Frankfurt Conference

Bloomberg March 22, 2012

On March 22 at 9:00 AM ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan will join a panel discussion about the "Risks Beyond the Eurozone and the Threat of Contagion" during the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference.