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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Fading Eurozone Inflation Pressures


Inflationary pressures in the euro zone have faded further, suggesting the European Central Bank's bond-buying programme is having little effect, according to an indicator issued on Friday that is designed to predict cyclical trends.

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EFZIG) dipped to 98.5 in September from 98.6 the month before. The gauge is a measure of the outlook for inflation published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"With the EZFIG slipping further to a seven-month low in September, euro zone inflation pressures are still easing," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief operations officer.

Despite the ECB injecting 60 billion euros a month of new money through its bond-buying programme since March, euro zone prices were flat year-on-year in October, maintaining pressure on the bank to further ease monetary policy.

Economists polled by Reuters last week said it was highly likely the ECB will ease again in December, increasing or extending its stimulus programme and further cutting the deposit rate, already in negative territory.

VIEW THIS ARTICLE ON REUTERS

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