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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Weekly Leading Index Growth Eases


ECRI's leading U.S. index rose 0.5 point to 134.8 in the week ended Aug. 22. The 4-week annualized growth rate decelerated for a fifth straight week, to 2.3%. That's the weakest since early March.

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The Fear of Wages Is Dead

ECRI August 29, 2014

A keystone of current market complacency is the growing conviction that, with wage growth flagging, the Fed will not hike rates sooner or faster than expected. More