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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Rises


Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity gathered strength last week.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.5% in the week ended Jan. 3, from 1.9% in the prior week.

The index itself increased to 133.4 from 133.0 in the previous week. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average."

The December ECRI index growth rate slowed to 2.0% from 2.9% in November.

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