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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Unchanged


A measure of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged last week, while the annualized growth rate edged up, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index held steady at 129.8 in the week ended March 15. Last week's figure was originally reported as 129.9.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 6.4 percent from  6.3 percent a week earlier.

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Stock Prices and Recessions

CBS March 18, 2013

When people say that we cannot be in recession now because stock prices are rising, it is important to know that we have seen this movie before. More