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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Ticks Up


A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate stayed flat, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.1 in the week ended April 5 from a revised 129.1 the previous week. The previous figure was originally reported as 129.2.

The index's annualized growth rate was 6.2 percent, the same as a week earlier.

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Interview on Jobs & Recession

CNBC April 7, 2013

How the latest jobs data squares with ECRI's recession call. More

 

Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More