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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Ticks Up


A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week to its strongest since April 2010, while the annualized growth rate stayed steady, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index increased to 132.9 in the week ended Dec. 27 from 131.9 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate was 1.8 percent, the same as a week earlier. The previous week's figure was originally reported at 1.9 percent.

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ECRI December 11, 2013

The ECB rate cut was spurred by a “surprise” drop in Eurozone inflation in Oct. But, U.S. inflation was even lower then, and the Fed’s key inflation measure fell further below its 2% target. More