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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Ticks Up


A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged up last week to the highest in over three years, while the annualized growth rate improved to its highest in over a month, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.8 in the week ended Aug 2, which was the highest since May 2010, from 131.7 the previous week. The previous week was originally reported as 131.8.

The index's annualized growth rate climbed to 5.3 percent, the highest level since late June, from 4.9 percent a week earlier.

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Bloomberg Interview on Becoming Japan

Bloomberg July 30, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss our recession call, and how the U.S. economy is now resembling Japan's "lost decades." More