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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Rises


A measure of future U.S. economic growth hit its highest level in more than three years last week and the annualized growth rate rebounded from a previous 39-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.3 in the week ended Sept. 6, up from 131.5. The reading was the highest since the week ending April 30, 2010.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 4.1 percent after dipping to 3.9 percent the prior week, which was the lowest since November 30, 2012.

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BBC Interview on Jobs

BBC September 6, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talks with the BBC to put today's jobs report in the context of larger trends. More