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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Rises


A measure of future U.S. economic growth improved in the latest week to its highest since August 2011, while the annualized growth rate also accelerated, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 in the week ended Dec. 21 from 127.2 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 5.4 percent from 4.6 percent a week earlier. This was its best showing since late October.

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The Tell-Tale Chart

ECRI December 7, 2012

Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More