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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Drops


Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity took a steep step down last week.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.3% in the week ended Feb. 7, down from 4.2% in the previous week.

The index itself fell to 132.2 from 133.2.

"Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average," ECRI said.

The January ECRI index growth rate jumped to 4.0% from 1.9% in December.

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