Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

ECRI WLI Falls


A measure of future U.S. economic growth decreased to an eight-week low in the latest week, and the annualized growth rate also fell, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to 125.4 in the week-ended Nov. 9 from 126.1 the previous   week. That was the lowest level since Sept. 14.

The previous week's figure was revised down from 126.2.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to 4.4 percent from  5.0 percent a week earlier, hitting its lowest since Sept. 21, a seven-week low. The previous week's growth rate was revised down from 5.1 percent.

 

Related News & Events

The Tell-Tale Chart

ECRI December 7, 2012

Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More

 

Recession Underway

Bloomberg November 29, 2012

Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been weakening since mid-2012. More