A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.




A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to its lowest level since early July while the annualized growth rate also slipped, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index stood at 130.4 in the week ended Oct. 4, down from 132.1 the prior week.

The index's annualized growth rate was 3.8 percent, the lowest since November, down from 4.7 percent the previous week. The prior week's rate was originally reported as 4.8 percent.