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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Weekly Leading Index Slips


The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped from 130.8 to 130.7, a 64-week low and the lowest since October 11, 2013, when it was 130.1. Its growth rate decreased from -3.9% to a 152-week low of -4.4%, the lowest since February 3, 2012, when it was -4.4%. The decline in WLI growth points to slower overall growth in coming months.

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2-year Lows for Average Hourly Earnings Growth

ECRI January 9, 2015

Average hourly earnings growth rates (year-over-year) drop to two-year lows, the worst readings since the fall of 2012. More

 

The Fed in the Yo-Yo Years

Al Jazeera January 7, 2015

Given half a chance, the Fed wants to raise rates off of the zero lower bound ASAP. More

 

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