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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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New Growth Rate Cycle Dates for Germany, France, Italy & Spain


Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle trough dates for Germany (Dec. 2012), France (Nov. 2012), Italy (Dec. 2012) and Spain (Nov. 2012).

Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.

Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries and is considered the arbiter for international business cycle dates.

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As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More

 

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