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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Interview Summary


In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. 

CNBC

Coincident indicators, including GDP, are consistent with recession starting mid 2012
Stock prices can rise during recession
Policy makers targeting market prices
Mild vs. severe recession

Bloomberg Part 1
The Fed's recessionary stall speed measure stalled in 2012
Year-over year jobs growth is slowing, not accelerating
Nominal GDP growth recessionary
ECRI April home price growth upturn call & recent Leading Home Price Index decline 

Bloomberg Part 2
Stocks prices and recessions
Fed targeting financial assets, including 401(k)s
Plunging velocity of money since 2011
ECRI April home price upturn call, and recent Leading Home Price Index decline 

Yahoo Finance
Weak incomes and recession
Stock prices have risen during three of the past 15 past recessions
The difficulty of “real-time” recognition of recession

Related News & Events

Recession in the Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 8, 2013

Year-over-year growth in nonfarm payroll jobs has now dropped to an 18-month low, and household job growth has dropped to a 16-month low. See images and notes on the state of the business cycle. More