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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Monthly Jobs Surveys May Overshoot Gains


Listen to Lakshman Achuthan’s interview on Bloomberg Radio discussing ECRI's latest opinion piece on the U.S. jobs growth outlook.

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Great Headlines Mislead On Jobs

ECRI July 5, 2019

The headlines paint an overly rosy picture of the state of the labor market, after having exaggerated last year’s job growth. More

 

De-Globalization Diagnosis Predated Trade War

ECRI June 28, 2019

De-globalization has been happening for much of this decade, as its roots run much deeper than the trade war. So, while a resolution to trade disputes would be welcome, de-globalization will continue. More