Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

New Growth Rate Cycle Peaks for Russia and South Africa


Today ECRI is announcing new growth rate cycle peak dates for Russia and South Africa.

ECRI recently announced the addition of Leading and Coincident Indexes for Russia which completes our coverage of the BRICS, providing essential cyclical coverage for these increasingly important countries. The addition of Russia further enhances our real-time global cyclical monitoring framework.

Click here for the complete international growth rate cycle chronology.

Business cycles – alternating periods of recession and recovery – are part and parcel of all free-market economies. Before there was a committee to determine U.S. business cycle dates, ECRI co-founder Geoffrey H. Moore decided all those dates on the NBER’s behalf from 1949 to 1978, and then served as the committee’s senior member until he passed away in 2000. Using the same approach, ECRI has long determined recession start and end dates for 20 other countries.

Growth rate cycles – alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – occur within business cycles. Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries. Growth rate cycles are especially relevant to cyclical fluctuations in securities markets.

Related Insights

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.

 

Related News & Events

Recession Here

Bloomberg July 10, 2012

It takes time to realize that a recession has already begun. More