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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Secular Stagnation


ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan discusses why we think the epicenter of recession was the half-year spanning Q4/12 - Q1/13, and why ECRI's long-standing concerns about "secular stagnation" -- that the U.S. is "becoming Japan" -- needs a more serious conversation.

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Job Growth Not Trending Higher

ECRI January 14, 2014

Even ignoring December data, the household survey, which sees far smaller revisions, counts a million fewer jobs created over the prior 12 months than the establishment survey. More

 

Cyclical Outlook

CNBC January 14, 2014

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined CNBC this morning to discuss the cyclical outlook. More