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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Ticks Up


Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity has strengthened further.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.9% in the week ended March 21, up from 2.3% in the previous week. Growth is now at its highest since early February.

The index itself increased to 133.5 from 133.0. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average."

The February ECRI index growth rate slowed sharply to 1.6% from 4.0% in January.

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