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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Ticks Down


Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity is gaining strength.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 2.3% in the week ended March 14, up from 2.1% in the previous week. The upturn follows a sharp slowdown in growth during late January and February.

The index itself, however, fell to 132.9 from 133.6. ECRI says occasionally the index level and growth rate "can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average."

The February index growth rate fell sharply to 1.6% from 4.0% in January.

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