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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Ticking Down


Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 1.7% in the week ended Feb. 21, down from 2.5% in the previous week. Growth is now at its weakest since last week of 2013.

The index itself fell to 131.8 from 132.2. ECRI said that "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average."

The January ECRI index-growth rate jumped to 4.0% from 1.9% in December.

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