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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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ECRI WLI Growth Slips


Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to weaken.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew just 2.5% in the week ended Feb. 14, down from 3.2% growth the previous week. It was the third straight week in which the growth rate slowed.

The index itself was unchanged at 132.2. ECRI says that "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average."

The January ECRI index growth rate jumped to 4.0% from 1.9% in December.

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