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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increased



 
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index increased to 134.2 from 133.1. The growth rate ticked down to 0.9% from 1.0%.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here to read A Two-Speed Economy.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

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Simple Math: ½% + ½% = 1%

ECRI June 11, 2015

With productivity growth and potential labor force growth both averaging ½% a year, trend real GDP growth is converging to 1% a year. More

 

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