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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Future Inflation Gauge: A Primer


ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points. There is both a monthly and a weekly version of the gauge. Monthly historical data begins in 1948; the weekly historical data begins in 1989.

The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.

The 2016 upturn in the USFIG foreshadowed the upturn in U.S. inflation pressures. Therefore, even though market inflation expectations had dropped to multiyear lows that summer, we knew that a cyclical upturn in inflation was at hand. Now the USFIG’s direction has started to reverse.



The USFIG is a more direct measure of inflation pressures that is not based on an econometric model, but is rooted in a very different paradigm. It is comprised of leading indicators reflecting the fundamental drivers of the inflation cycle.

Related News & Events

All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation

Bloomberg July 18, 2017

Even as central bankers get more hawkish, the data show there's a change underway that the Fed is likely to miss. More

 

Future Inflation Gauge Edges Up

Bond Buyer July 7, 2017

The U.S. FIG edged up in June after having dropped noticeably in May. More

 

Reuters: Jobs, Wages & the Fed

Reuters July 7, 2017

The Future Inflation Gauge does not use the Philips curve, or extrapolation. More

 

New Interview with Real Vision

Real Vision TV June 16, 2017

ECRI's Achuthan spoke with Real Vision TV about the 2017 cyclical outlook, and more. More

 

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