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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

U.S. Coincident Index Growth Rate Slips


The U.S. Coincident Index (USCI) ticked down to 169.8 in March from 169.9. Year-over-year (yoy) growth in ECRI’s USCI, a broad measure of economic activity that includes GDP, employment, income and sales, has slipped to 2.16%, a 27-month low.



Over a year ago (US Essentials, January 2015) – contrary to the consensus that expected economic growth to improve even further as the year progressed – ECRI’s leading indexes foresaw a slowdown.

To put the state of the economy in perspective click here see Lakshman Achuthan's presentation slides, which include notes and audio, from the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference.

Related News & Events

Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments

ECRI April 15, 2016

Minsky conference slides and audio. More

 

Fed Faces Stagflation Lite

ECRI April 13, 2016

With sluggish U.S. economic growth slowing further, and inflation on the rise, the Fed is faced with “stagflation lite.” More