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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up


The U.S. Weekly Leading Index ticks up to 135.5 from 135.2. The growth rate increases to 4.5% from 3.5%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," presented by Lakshman Achuthan at the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference. Please follow this link to the presentation slides

- watch Lakshamn Achuthan's interviews with Simon Constable at Forbes': Recession Fears Still Overblown, U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite' and What The Fed Can Learn From Carl Sagan

- read Stalling or Falling?

- read The Fiscal Equivalent of War

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

Related News & Events

Recession Fears Still Overblown

Forbes April 28, 2016

Talking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why there’s a long way to go before calling a recession. More

 

U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite'

Forbes April 27, 2016

Speaking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why "stagflation-lite" is in our future. More

 

Stalling or Falling?

ECRI April 26, 2016

Gross Domestic Income has been below 2%, the Fed's estimated "stall speed," for ten of the last 14 quarters. More

 

Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments

ECRI April 15, 2016

Minsky conference slides and audio. More

 

Fed Faces Stagflation Lite

ECRI April 13, 2016

With sluggish U.S. economic growth slowing further, and inflation on the rise, the Fed is faced with “stagflation lite.” More

 

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