frameworkContact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Ticked Down


The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked down to 137.8 from 137.9. The growth rate edged down to 8.4% from 8.7%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore." 

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Related News & Events

Stagflation Lite Getting Harder to Ignore

ECRI July 27, 2016

ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index growth has been in a clear downtrend since the beginning of 2015. More

 

ECRI’s Simple Math Goes Global

ECRI July 20, 2016

Weak demographics and productivity growth plague the G7, lowering trend economic growth, which makes cyclical slowdowns more risky. More

 

Related Reports