Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

U.S. Weekly Leading Index Increases


The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 136.1 from 135.1. The growth rate edged up to 6.1% from 6.0%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s –
to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshamn Achuthan's interview with Tom Keene at Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," presented by Lakshman Achuthan at the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference. Please follow this link to the presentation slides

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

Related News & Events

Wage Erosion Resumes

ECRI May 25, 2016

Higher inflation eats away at real wage growth. More

 

Growth Weighed Down by Inaction

New York Times May 18, 2016

“The litmus test for any policy is, what impact does it have to improve productivity or demographic growth?” More

 

Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments

ECRI April 15, 2016

Minsky conference slides and audio. More

 

Fed Faces Stagflation Lite

ECRI April 13, 2016

With sluggish U.S. economic growth slowing further, and inflation on the rise, the Fed is faced with “stagflation lite.” More