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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edges Up


The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edges up to 137.0 from 136.7. The growth rate ticks up to 6.9% from 6.8%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors." 

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Related News & Events

Interview: Cyclical Outlook vs. Structural Problems

Bloomberg July 13, 2016

Just because a U.S. recession isn’t right at hand, doesn’t mean it’s off the table. More

 

Discussing Latest Jobs Data

Reuters July 8, 2016

Even with the strong jobs report, we still have a clear slowdown in yoy payroll job growth remains close to May's 27-month low. More

 

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

ECRI June 30, 2016

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.” More

 

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