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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Weekly Leading Index Up


The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged up to 135.7 from 135.5. The growth rate rose to 5.4% from 4.5%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," presented by Lakshman Achuthan at the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference. Please follow this link to the presentation slides

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interviews with Simon Constable at Forbes': Recession Fears Still Overblown, U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite' and What The Fed Can Learn From Carl Sagan

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

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