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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Weekly Leading Index Edged Down


The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged down to 136.5 from 137.4. The growth rate increased to 7.1% from 6.7%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshamn Achuthan's interview on Reuters Insider TV.

- read ECRI's "The Rate Hike Cycle that Wasn’t." 

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

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Economic Cycle and The Fed

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