Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

U.S. WLI Monthly Ticked Up


The level of the monthly WLI ticked up to 134.7 from 134.0.

The growth rate of the monthly WLI increased to 6.4% from 5.6%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshamn Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.

- read ECRI's "Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors".

Related News & Events

Discussing Latest Jobs Data

Reuters July 8, 2016

Even with the strong jobs report, we still have a clear slowdown in yoy payroll job growth remains close to May's 27-month low. More

 

Cyclical Misconceptions Driving Policy Errors

ECRI June 30, 2016

Policies rooted in overly optimistic assumptions about trend growth and mistaken notions about business cycle dynamics are key to the “productivity puzzle.” More

 

A Sober Economy Can Handle the Brexit Hit

Bloomberg June 30, 2016

One of the main signs of the health of the global and U.S. economies is its ability to absorb a blow, and shake it off. More

 

Related Reports