frameworkContact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

U.S. WLI Monthly Ticked Down


The level of the monthly WLI ticked down to 137.2 from 137.7.

The growth rate of the monthly WLI decreased to 7.2% from 8.9%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Cautionary Signs for Consumer Spending."

- listen to Lakshman Achuthan's interview on Financial Sense.

Related News & Events

Cautionary Signs for Consumer Spending

ECRI November 4, 2016

Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, is critical to the Fed’s optimistic view on the economy as it prepares to hike rates in December. More

 

Shunted to the Sidelines

ECRI October 31, 2016

For those without a high school diploma, the percentage of Blacks and Hispanics with jobs is back up near record highs, but the majority of non-Hispanic Whites have been jobless for seven long years. More

 

Interview: Recession Risk, The Fed & Fiscal Policy

Financial Sense October 21, 2016

Slowdown almost 2 years old, but no recession imminent. More

 

Related Reports