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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

U.S. WLI Monthly Rose


The level of the monthly WLI rose to 133.3 from 130.5.

The growth rate of the monthly WLI increased to 4.8% from 0.9%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments," presented by Lakshman Achuthan at the Levy Economics Institute’s 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference. Please follow this link to the presentation slides

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview with Tom Keene at Bloomberg TV.

Related News & Events

Bloomberg Interview Summary

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Multiple jobs needed to make ends meet

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Multiple jobholders growth much faster than single jobholders. More

 

Recession Fears Still Overblown

Forbes April 28, 2016

Talking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why there’s a long way to go before calling a recession. More

 

U.S. Headed for 'Stagflation-Lite'

Forbes April 27, 2016

Speaking with Simon Constable at Forbes about why "stagflation-lite" is in our future. More

 

Stalling or Falling?

ECRI April 26, 2016

Gross Domestic Income has been below 2%, the Fed's estimated "stall speed," for ten of the last 14 quarters. More

 

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